Juan Soto and the Big Deal

The future of every Major League Baseball team is about to change.

It's a once-in-a-generation opportunity. News has broken that Juan Soto, the young Washington Nationals superstar, has, firstly, declined a fifteen-year, $440 million dollar guaranteed extension from the Nationals. That's eye-opening in itself. But resultingly (and more importantly) he thus is almost surely going to be traded, and your favorite team is interested.

Of course they are. How could they not?

Soto is in the same conversation as Mike Trout, where it's difficult to overrate how good they actually are (although I fear Trout's years in this conversation are numbered.) It's cliche to say Soto and Trout are underrated, but they are. Part of that is because Soto plays for a smaller market team that's currently struggling, and there are other young superstars in the league around him who might take some of the spotlights. Aaron Judge, for example, in New York, or Ronald Acuna Jr. in Atlanta. Bryce Harper, in Philadelphia, and I could go on; these are all names that *can* and do put up production near or equal to Soto.

But there's one difference, and this is what makes Soto's case so historically unique:

He's 23.

Soto is now in his fifth season since getting called up at 19 (!), and he's already passed 20 fWAR. His career wRC+ is 155. His career slash line (as of 7/19/22) is .293/.427/.541 (an OPS of .968). Those numbers would be a career year for the vast majority of hitters; Soto has done it for five years, and he's just getting started. His Statcast chart looks like this:

Because the first four to five years of team control are quite cheap (compared to their production) most hitters don't hit the market (whether it be free agency or the trade block) till they are 28, 29, or even 30, i.e. another team is hard pressed to acquire a star player until an age where they've likely reached their peak, or even passed it.

Consider again the Yankees with Aaron Judge. Judge is 30 this year, and putting up the best numbers of his career, with a .982 OPS and 33 home runs by the All-Star break. He's also due to hit free agency after this season, which puts the Yankees in an interesting position. Judge is likely looking to command more than $30 million a year, for at least five years, and that might be on the low side if he continues to hit as he has so far.

But those years of Judge (and most other free-agent hitters) are his age 31 to 35-36 years, and it's unreasonable to assume that he can put up this elite level of production into his mid-to-late thirties. A trade and extension of Soto would be Soto's age 24 to 30 years, right in the middle of his prime, where (barring injury) he could easily put up five to seven or even nine wins a season, all by himself.

It's a deal that will shape the future of baseball history. It's an opportunity that comes up once in a generation, at best. The last time a player this impactful was traded was likely Alex Rodriguez, when he was traded from the Rangers to the Yankees in 2004, and even then he was 27 at the time.

Every team will be interested, of course, but only a select few have the resources to make a deal happen. First, the package going back to the Nationals must be massive. Some estimate the deal will take at least four Top-100 prospects or the like. Every publication's list varies, but most agree that teams like the Dodgers, Marlins, Pirates, D-Backs, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Orioles are some of the teams that have the farm system strength to put together a deal for Soto. Others could probably come close (Cardinals, Guardians, Cubs, Rangers, and others) but are more of a long shot. Second, the team that gets Soto almost surely will (and should) sign him to one of the biggest extensions in baseball history, both by years and/or value. Again, he just turned down 15 years and $440 million. This likely rules out most smaller-market teams, hesitant or unable to commit large amounts of money to a single player.

If you're beginning to think the Yankees or the Dodgers are going to be some of the likely suspects to add Soto to their supervillain baseball empires for the next decade and a half, you're absolutely right. And they absolutely should. There is no way Andrew Friedman and Brian Cashman are not on the phone with the Nationals right now, leaving no stone unturned to make sure they are the ones to add Soto. That's how big of a deal it is. Trading for Soto would be the best move they've ever made; conversely, letting someone else get him is a massive missed opportunity.

I wanted to make this post about the Cubs because they're in a similar boat: they certainly have the money to swing it, and players like Soto are the types of players the Cubs need to be aggressively pursuing as they return to competitiveness. No more 'smart money'; acquiring Soto is the smartest money you can possibly spend. 'Smart money' isn't falling further behind the Dodgers or Yankees powerhouses.

It's not a sure thing that Soto goes to any of those teams; he likely has some say in the matter, and it's been reported that the Nationals will improve their offer in one last-ditch effort to get him to stay in DC. But it's more likely that in two weeks or less one of the largest deals in baseball history will alter the face of Major League Baseball forever.